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Will 2008 be hotter or colder than 2007? Will there be more or fewer hurricanes? Since I don't have my crystal ball handy I can't tell you for sure. Even climate scientists don't agree on what is in store in terms of weather for 2008. Knowing what the weather is going to be before it happens would be extremely useful. Farmers would know when to plant their crops, baseball teams would know when to schedule games and I would know where and when to plan my vacation. As a result many publications, people and groups claim to be able to predict the weather. The most famous of which is probably the Farmers Almanac, which claims 80 to 85% accuracy. Whether or not this claim is true is a matter of debate. It would be interesting to compare 2008 weather predictions made by experts to those made by prediction markets. Are the result similar or are they different. If they are different who will turn out to be right. For those of you who don't know, prediction markets are emerging way of predicting the future somewhat similar to futures contracts. Basically, you use either real or virtual money to buy and sell a given prediction. For example looking at 2008 weather you make the following predictions:
Disagree? Prove me wrong by joining a prediction market and picking the same predictions as the Farmer's Almanac and see what happens. If it turns out to be right you will make some money. If not you will know not to trust it. The choice is up to you. Finally, if you don't think a prediction market is for you by all means go out an buy a copy of the Farmer's Almanac or better yet consult a psychic. |